On we go. Trump has made it beyond one hundred days.
Boo! Hurrah! (And they say I'm not balanced.)
I listen to loads of podcasts, and read the odd newspaper and magazine. Intellectual and worthy folk think furiously, all of them desperate for an epiphany on Trump. What's the plan? Is there a plan? Can he spell "plan"?
The closest to unlocking it so far is Emily Maitlis, a Canadian-born British journalist. On podcast "The Newsagents" she revealed that over the weekend, it had occurred to her that far from being hopelessly out of his depth, Steve Witkoff is the ideal special envoy from Trump to Putin.
She's right, of course. He's the perfect man for the job, once we understand the nature of the job. Witkoff is a real estate guy. Russia is a massive chunk of real estate. Trump wants Witkoff to set up property deals. The war thing is a diversion, some leverage. It's not the priority.
See? Once you understand that, it all becomes easier.
People underestimate and overestimate Trump all at the same time.
He's not a power-obsessed fascist. He's not the leader of an evil empire. He's not a Mafia don. He's not desperately seeking the approval of his Mummy. Actually, all of those might be inadvertently true, but none of them is the essence of Trump.
He's a hustler, a scam artist, a cheat. He's on the make.
What are his techniques?
- Lie. Just make stuff up. Say it loud enough and often enough and some will believe you.
- Distract. This is what all the "flood the zone" stuff is about. What's more important to Trump? The sovereignty of Greenland or his latest crypto coin? It's the latter, but we talk about the former.
- No. That's it.
If you adopt this lens, everything becomes clearer.
Take tariffs. Trump loves tariffs. He's talked about them for years. He's suggesting that he'll be able to abolish income tax because of tariffs. He acknowledges that there will be "some pain" but in the long term, it will be worth it. Long term? He's about to turn 79. He doesn't give a flying fig about the long term. Can you imagine how Trump would react if Saudi Arabia told him that he'd have to pay a ten percent tariff to erect one of his awful hotels in Riyadh? He'd go bananas. To suggest that Trump has an ideological attachment to anything strikes me as so obviously wrong that I struggle to comprehend how anyone could say it with a straight face.
So, why tariffs? Let's put our lens on.
What actually happened when he introduced tariffs?
Equity markets reacted violently. Money markets began to move. Some countries retaliated, some picked up the phone. Lobbyists and businesses fell over themselves to get exemptions, pauses or time to pivot.
Who gains from volatile markets? Yep. The person who controls the volatility. If you know when stocks are going to drop or rise by percentage points, you're going to make a load of money. It's the same with commodities, currencies and debt.
If a country wants something from Trump, what approach does it take? Yep. Transactional. What does he want? What can we give him?
If a business wants something from Trump, what approach does it take? Yep. Transactional. What does he want? What can we give him?
Tariffs are a scam. A means to an end.
What about the success? The one policy that everyone seems to think has been a great win. The border. We live in a world where the fact that people no longer want to emigrate to the US and chase the American Dream is heralded as a success. Think about that for a minute.
That apart - everyone seems agreed at control of the borders is a good thing. But what does it mean for America?
Well, off the top of my head, it's a disaster for the military, construction and hospitality industry, all of whom recruit from the immigrant population. We're told that the US is going to be a manufacturing behemoth as companies rush to avoid tariffs. Who is going to do the work?
Companies will be in the White House, looking for exemptions and pauses. Sound familiar?
Remember the first Trump administration? Wherever you looked, some Trump junior was putting their foot into their mouth. They seemed indispensable. Where are they now? Don junior? Jared and Ivanka? Eric?
They're around. In the Middle East, a lot.
Look up World Liberty.
World Liberty Financial - Wikipedia
He's just a grifter, and he's turned it into a family business.
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